Corn price market analysis: spot "hibernation" bullish after the holiday

The national corn price remained stable overall, the supply and demand side of the corn market was positive, the national control measures showed effect in the corn market, and the corn price oscillated for one and a half months. It is expected that the corn oscillation will continue until the Spring Festival, Northeast China, according to the futures daily January 6th. According to the news, "Maize made from the Bayuquan Harbor to Guangdong does not make any money," said Dai Shuo, a trader at the Bayuquan Harbor in Liaoning Province. At present, plus the bank interest, loss and other costs, the sale of corn in the northeastern region to the South traders is simply not profitable. At the same time, the recent rumors show that the state banned northeastern corn from Sinotrans. Affected by this, the three major northeastern ports have a serious trade deficit in grain, and there is a lack of port customer demand and poor cargo availability. Traders have a wait-and-see atmosphere.

On the 10th, the corn stocks at the three major ports totaled about 1.1 million tons, of which, the stocks at the Bayuquan Port were more than 410,000 tons, and the combined stocks at Dalian Beiliang Port and Dayaowan Port were more than 500,000 tons. During the New Year's Day, the snowfall process in Heilongjiang stopped basically, and the weather improved.

The main traffic lines in most areas have been basically restored to traffic. According to the feedback from different regions, from the 3rd of January, the purchase and sale of corn in some regions began to resume. During the New Year's Day, the weather in most parts of Jilin Province was in good condition. The purchase price of corn for deep-processing enterprises in the province remained stable as a whole, and farmers’ reluctance to purchase was still unsatisfactory. On January 5th, the purchase price of rural corn in Jilin Province was generally stable. The mainstream purchase price was between 0.75-0.82 yuan/kg and water content was 30-24%.

As the grass-roots prices are slightly weaker, most farmers continue to wait for food. At this stage, the main purchasers in the province are corn deep-processing enterprises. The enthusiasm of market entry for large, medium, and small grain traders due to capital and wait-and-see factors has declined. In the Huanghuai region, on January 6th, Hebei's corn purchase prices remained stable overall, with major acquisitions. The price is between 0.955-0.97 yuan/kg, and moisture is 15%. Due to the recent sunny weather in Hebei, the rapid decline in corn moisture, and this year's corn quality is better, for this farmer slightly optimistic about food. During the New Year's Day, the purchase price of corn by Shandong grain companies continued to show steady decline.

Most of the company's prices remained stable, and individual companies continued to lower the corn purchase price to control acquisition volume and reduce acquisition costs. The price was maintained at 1.02 to 1.055 yuan/kg (water content 14%). According to market monitoring, on the New Year's Day in 2011, the Anhui market has abundant grain sources, rich varieties, adequate supply, and normal purchases and sales. The demand for corn in Anhui province has become warmer and prices have increased slightly. On January 5th, the wholesale price of corn in Anhui province was 97.1 yuan/50 kg, which was 0.2% higher than that of last week; the southern harbor area and Guangdong harbor had 5th day of corn stock at 28.7. Ten thousand tons, including Shekou 70,000 tons, Chiwan 74,000 tons ("Jiningshan" and 17,000 tons), Machong 16,000 tons, Mawan 21,000 tons ("Depinghai" 40,000 tons), Xingang 49,000 tons. Within 15% of the water within the port, the transaction price of new corn is still at 2150-2160 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Chen corn is at 2170-2180 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable.

There are more recent ships in Hong Kong and there are certain pressures for arrival in the short term. Nearly 300,000 tons of corn stocks in Guangdong ports have increased slightly compared to last weekend. The transaction price of first-class new corn is still at RMB 2150-2160/ton, and the transaction price for first-class corn is at RMB 2170-2180/ton, both with the festival. Flat before. As the Spring Festival approaches, feed companies are about to enter the centralized delivery period, and Guangdong corn prices are expected to be supported.

Domestically, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 4th showed that the average price of 29 kinds of main foods in 50 domestic cities in late December 2010 was higher than 70% in the first half of December. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the rebound in food prices was the arrival of the “two sessions” and the climate factors of low temperature, rain, and snow. China National Development and Reform Commission announced on January 4th that the National Development and Reform Commission announced today the “Anti-price Monopoly Regulation” prohibiting competitive operations. The eight price monopoly agreements that fixed or changed the price, anti-price monopoly provisions directed at agricultural products; January 1, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou and other places continued to rain and snow, some counties suffered cold waves and snow disasters. Yesterday, the Disaster Relief Division of the Ministry of Civil Affairs revealed that as of 14:00 on January 4th, disasters caused 5.833 million people in five provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou. The disaster killed one and caused direct economic losses of 1.35 billion yuan. According to the latest forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, in the next 10 days, there are more rainy and snowy weather in southern China, and the temperature remains low. On the 5th to the 7th and the 9th to the 11th, freezing rain will occur intermittently in Guizhou, Chongqing, most of Hunan, northern Guangxi, and other places. Wires and roads will freeze, and freezing weather will be maintained.

Internationally, according to the report of the Counselor issued by the Overseas Agricultural Service Center of the US Department of Agriculture, corn production in Argentina may increase to 24 million tons in 2011/12 (from March to February), which is higher than the output of 22.7 million tons this year. In Argentina, 89% of the current maize planting work has been completed, but the weather is dry and summer rainfall may be below average, which has led to a decline in the prospects for yields in Argentina; according to information from Chicago on January 4, according to a survey released by Farm Futures on Tuesday. Farmers in the United States will plant more corn and wheat in 2011 and will slightly reduce soybean plantings, as growers may insist on a more traditional rotation mode instead of replacing one crop with a more profitable one. . Last year, the price of corn in the United States rose by nearly 52%. The planting area of ​​corn in 2011 is expected to increase to 89.93 million acres, which is 2% higher than last year, and will be the second highest level of corn planting area since 1994; January 5, South American weather Worries about supporting soybeans regained their uptrend. March corn rose 10.75 cents to close at 619.25 cents. The weather forecast shows that Argentina will have dry weather in the next 7-10 days. This expectation will increase the price of soybean futures, and its spread effect will provide support for corn.

On January 5, the Hefei National Food Trading Center announced that it will hold a national policy corn auction sales trade on the Anhui grain wholesale trade market and related networking markets on January 7. Sales targets include the transfer of corn (including central reserves) 157.1255 Tens of thousands of tons, the country temporarily stores corn (including central reserves) 248,761 tons, with a total sales of more than 180 million tons of corn futures:

International: A certain degree of precipitation has already appeared in the South American corn growing area, which will relieve the drought weather to a certain extent. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday, as of December 30th, U.S. corn export inspections were 15.616 million bushels, compared with 42.559 million bushels the previous week, and the initial value was 32.561 million bushels. Poor export sales data will also become a hit for investors in the short term, and corn futures prices will be lower. The weather forecast on January 5 shows that Argentina will have dry weather in the next 7-10 days. This expectation will increase the price of soybean futures, and its spread effect will provide support for corn. The January supply and demand report is expected to support corn futures prices. USDA estimates that the 2011 US corn inventory is the lowest in 15 years. A household survey shows that farmers plan to plant 89.93 million acres of corn. According to USDA data, the US corn planting area in 2010 was 88.2 million acres. The CBOT weather trend is exacerbating the short-term price increase. fluctuation.

Domestic side: The current corn market is in a dormant state, and the upward pressure has been suppressed by the policy side. Domestic government departments have repeatedly demanded that the market be stable before the Spring Festival, resolutely crack down on speculative downturns and drive up prices, so the resistance to corn price increases in the market Big. However, there is fundamental support underneath, farmers are reluctant to sell their goods very strongly. From the point of view of the corn planters in Northeast China, they sell up to 30% of corn before the Spring Festival. A larger amount of corn hopes to wait until the Spring Festival to sell. This makes In the current market, the supply of corn is insufficient, and the price of corn has become stagnant. The news of domestic fundamentals was calm, and the current price of corn maintained its follow-up volatility characteristics. After experiencing the falling market for four trading days before New Year's Day, the market regained the previous decline. From the perspective of the market, the turbulence in the period of 2310-2360 will continue, and there is little probability that the market will have a short-term direction. This shock will at least continue until around the Spring Festival.

Next week's focus and outlook The January 5 news, according to Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd. in a report on Wednesday, China's corn production in 2010 was about 172 million tons, Estimated reduction of 940,000 tons. In the short term, the country’s determination to control inflation is very firm. The NDRC announced the “Anti-monopoly Regulations” yesterday. It can be seen that the pressure on policies has not been relaxed. The high point in early November is difficult to break through easily. The market needs time to digest the macro level. pressure. In the past two months, frequent snowfall in the Northeast has affected the normal listing of corn. Although the prices of corn purchased by deep-processing companies are at a relatively high level, the average daily acquisition volume of enterprises still cannot meet the expected target, and the enthusiasm for corporate acquisition remains at a high level. At present, the time and price for the purchase of the State Reserve corn into the market are still unclear. Under normal circumstances, food prices should not be too bullish for the Spring Festival. In the short term, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of following down the surrounding markets, but the callback space is also limited and the range of shocks is maintained. For the market outlook, with the gradual listing of new grain, it is expected that the price of corn will slow down significantly during the period of previous year's soaring. In general, it will be out of the slow bull market. In the medium and long term, due to the high profits of deep-processing companies and the optimistic influence of future feed demand, the market may experience a certain degree of increase after the Spring Festival.

Domestic side: The current corn market is in a dormant state, and the upward pressure has been suppressed by the policy side. Domestic government departments have repeatedly demanded that the market be stable before the Spring Festival, resolutely crack down on speculative downturns and drive up prices, so the resistance to corn price increases in the market Big. However, there is fundamental support underneath, farmers are reluctant to sell their goods very strongly. From the point of view of the corn planters in Northeast China, they sell up to 30% of corn before the Spring Festival. A larger amount of corn hopes to wait until the Spring Festival to sell. This makes In the current market, the supply of corn is insufficient, and the price of corn has become stagnant. The news of domestic fundamentals was calm, and the current price of corn maintained its follow-up volatility characteristics. After experiencing the falling market for four trading days before New Year's Day, the market regained the previous decline. From the perspective of the market, the turbulence in the period of 2310-2360 will continue, and there is little probability that the market will have a short-term direction. This shock will at least continue until around the Spring Festival.