The following five yuan dishes are difficult to trace the recent rise in vegetable prices forecast inflation rise?

Recently, the price of vegetables that has been climbing all the way since the Spring Festival has caused many people to sigh "Eat." "I have sold vegetables for more than a decade, and this year's vegetable prices have risen the most." In a vegetable shop on the factory street in Daoli District of Harbin, owner Li Sister said with emotion. The reporter saw that the green vegetables placed in the vegetable store of Mr. Li’s sister were basically less than RMB 5 per catty. Many citizens cannot help but complain: "Now you have to make more than 20 yuan for a meal."

In addition to Harbin, most cities across the country are suffering from high prices. According to the monitoring of prices in Beijing's Xinfadi Market, the average wholesale price of vegetables in Beijing at present is 2.9 yuan/kg, which is nearly 20% higher than the same period last year. The price monitoring of the Beijing Shuitun market showed that the average price of vegetables was about 3.85 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 27.48%. According to Tong Wei, an analyst at Shuangqiao Market, the current vegetable prices are not only higher than the same period of last year, but also higher than in previous months.

Liu Tong, head of the New Market Statistics Center, said that after February, vegetable prices in the Beijing market have risen. The main reason for the current increase in prices is that green and yellow are not connected, and the supply of some vegetable varieties is seriously insufficient. In addition, due to the climatic conditions of producing areas, the production of vegetables is reduced.

Netizens worry that the continuous rise in vegetable prices indicates that inflation has risen into March, and the price of food represented by vegetables has risen all over the world. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that since March, the average prices of major foods in 50 cities have increased in a row for two consecutive 10 days, with the largest increase in vegetable varieties.

Many netizens believe that green onions, which can be regarded as astronomical in the vegetable market, are not an exception. Since the Spring Festival this year, the overall price of vegetables has not only declined as in previous years, but the prices of some varieties have even skyrocketed. Judging from the experience of previous years, the direct impact of scallions, mung beans, garlic, and ginger on CPI is limited, but a sudden rise in prices may be a signal of price rebound.

The blog post signed by “Yang Yuyan” believes that it is not just two onions worth 10 yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of agricultural products, especially vegetables, have risen substantially and have not dropped so far. At present, the price of vegetables has increased by 1 to 2 times compared with 3 months to 4 months ago. Some experts say that the onion has risen because the price was too low in the past and farmers abandoned the crop. However, since the price of all vegetables has risen sharply this year, are farmers discarding species? Following the "garlic yours" in 2010 and the "Ginger Your Army" in 2011 as an indicator of rising inflation, the "towards money onions" in the early spring of 2012 indicates the possibility of rising inflation.

Some people in the industry even said that vegetable prices continue to rise, it is likely to pull the CPI has fallen back to rise again.

>> Experts think whether inflation should be observed for a couple of months. Wang Jimin, deputy director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that Beijing's vegetable prices rose by 20% year-on-year, and that inflation cannot come to this conclusion, but it needs further Observed.

Wang Jimin said that according to the normal practice, it should be the off-season production of vegetables, and the price is in peak season, so the price will rise to some extent. But it's not that inflation has risen. Observe it for a month or two. Because inflation is determined not only by the rise in some vegetable varieties, but also by changes in the overall price of vegetables. At the same time, we should not only look at the static price increase, but also whether the rise in vegetables has brought about the rise of other agricultural products or other products. If this change has occurred, it means that it may be inflation.

CPI has fallen back on the problem of rising vegetable prices.

The central bank’s questionnaire survey of urban depositors in the first quarter showed that over 60% of residents believe that “high prices are difficult to accept”.

The reporters in Shenyang City's northbound, Jiulu, Shashan, and Auspicious, said that several farmers’ markets had conducted a random survey of citizens who came to buy food. 75% of the people thought that the current vegetable prices were too expensive, and some could not afford it. .

Mr. Hu, who lives near the auspicious market, goes to the morning market to buy food. Chinese cabbage and potatoes are now his favorite vegetables. “If the price of vegetables goes up like this, I am afraid that I will not be able to afford these dishes.”

In the process of slowing down the rise of CPI, the price of vegetables is still strong, and people can not help but think deeply about a problem: In the end, what is wrong?

The explanation of Mr. Li, a merchant of the northbound vegetable wholesale market, is: “Based on my decade-old experience in the wholesale market, the high price of vegetables is due to the fact that there are too many operating links and they increase the prices.” He said with his fingers, the vegetables were from the ground. Inside and out of the shed, people are required to hire people to pick and hire vehicles for transportation, followed by highway tolls, market entry fees, and so on.

In the vegetable industry, there is a famous "last kilometer theory", that is, the most increase in the price of vegetables is in the final retail link. The staff of the Office of the Shenyang Municipal Service Industry Commission pointed out: "The greengrocer sells goods from the wholesale market because they have to take a small amount and can only increase the price."

“There is no reasonable solution to the issue of fare increases for the last part of the vegetable trader,” said Chairman of the Vegetable Circulation Association of Shenyang City. Compared to the regulated vegetable markets and supermarkets, the prices of vegetables sold by small street vendors are much lower, but because they have no legitimate sales qualifications, and supply is not stable, they are still unable to compare prices in the entire market. Great influence.

As for the recent trend of vegetable prices, Chairman He analyzed: “In another week or so, Shenyang's local cuisine will come down. At that time, the prices of many leafy vegetables will fall back.”

Behind the high vegetable prices is "urban disease"

The deputy director of the Bureau of Commerce of Lanzhou City Chengguan District, in charge of market work, has long paid attention to vegetable prices. He believes that high vegetable prices is a manifestation of “urban diseases”. He said that to correctly understand the price of vegetables, it is necessary to analyze whether the fees or charges for each link in the industry chain are reasonable, and whether there is any huge profits. If not, it is probably not a simple issue of vegetable prices.

After combing the road to the “King of Eggplant” into the city, the reporter found that behind the high vegetable prices are actually three major “city diseases”:

Symptom 1: The function of the city is not perfect and the logistics cost is too high.

When a city expands, it should expand its production base. On the contrary, when many cities expand, they reduce the use of commercial land in vegetable bases and rely on foreign markets instead. As far as Lanzhou is concerned, the Yantan area, which is a few kilometers away from the city center, was still rural in the 1980s, and vegetables and fruits served the city. With the rapid expansion of the city, the current Yantan Beach has long gone out of the fields and is covered by tall buildings, making it a bustling commercial area.

Zhao Guibin, director of the Gansu Provincial Economic Crop Extension Station, believes that the high price of vegetables in winter and spring in Gansu is closely related to the insufficient amount of vegetables in local facilities. Lanzhou is no exception. He said: "More than 70% of winter and spring rely on tune in, and in summer and autumn, Lanzhou cuisine is mainly supplied to the southeast coast."

Li Dechun said: “If the silver vegetables are transported to Lanzhou, the prices for more than 100 kilometers will more than double, and the vegetables from the South will be farther away and have more links, and the price increase rate will be more predictable. The recent rise in oil prices has cost rise."

Symptom 2: The government's investment lacks high fees and high food prices to "accomplice."

In the "King of Eggplant" into the city, the reporter noticed a special part - a wholesale market. Daqingshan fruit and vegetable wholesale market vendors introduced a car carrying 5 tons of goods into the market, the entrance fee will be 200 yuan / car, cart up to 1,000 yuan / car, in addition to parking fees, agency fees. According to some of the second-tier wholesalers, empty-vehicle foods have to pay 30 yuan.

Due to its monopoly status, this fast-growing market charge has made it difficult for the vegetable traders to increase. “The entrance fee for a five-ton truck was initially 35 yuan, then it went up to 50 yuan. It was still 100 yuan last year and it was raised to 200 yuan when it was approaching the Spring Festival.” said Liu Wenbin, a vegetable vendor, “This market is run by several big bosses. Yes, people want to go up and go up. There is no way."

In Dingxi Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou City, a road vegetable market, the reporter also learned that stalls rent from 80 yuan to 1,500 yuan per square meter, only this one, vegetable vendors will pay 800 yuan -1500 yuan per month.

According to Guo Tao, the meat and vegetable retail and wholesale markets in the city are mostly the enterprises that “retreat from two to three” in the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. Some of them are private enterprises. The government’s investment is very few, and its public welfare is difficult to realize. Profit for the purpose.

Symptom 3: The “last mile” in the city’s high cost of living makes it difficult for Li Guozhen to introduce that most of the vegetable industry in Lanzhou is outsiders and dragging their families. The continuous increase in the cost of living in the city has increased the pressure on the livelihood of vegetable vendors and related industries in all sectors. As far as the retail sector is concerned, rent, stall rent, children attending school and daily expenses depend on a vegetable stall. The amount of food sold by a small vegetable marketer is limited every day. Reliance on this limited sales volume to protect the family's urban life must be increased to A certain extent, which also led to the "last mile" is difficult to profit.

Liu Lu also said that in recent years, the rent in Lanzhou has been rising all the way, 60 square meters of house rent has increased from 400 yuan per month rose to 1,200 yuan, children in Jingning Road Primary School on the 4th grade, although there is no tuition, but the small dining table and other miscellaneous fees down It will also cost seven or eight hundred yuan. When the children go to school and rent, it will cost 2,000 yuan per month. "We can be satisfied with the slight surplus after we maintain our daily expenses." Liu Lu smiled.

In response to the high prices of vegetables, Guo Yan and Huang Zhijie, a research associate of the Department of Commerce of Gansu Province, frankly stated that at present, local governments have no effective means to regulate vegetable prices. The key is to continue to improve urban functions by city managers and increase the construction of urban vegetable bases. , reduce circulation, increase investment in this area of ​​people's livelihood, reduce or cancel part of the income.